Opening Weapon cases is possibly the easiest way to score new skins in CS2. Although most players choose to buy, trade and sell CS2 (CS:GO) skins on the community market, if you’re looking to add completely new skins to the game’s economy, you will have to open weapon cases.
However, there’s much more to opening CS2 (CS:GO) cases, then simply purchasing the key and getting your skins. Although opening CS2 (CS:GO) cases is always a gamble, you can learn how to mitigate this probability, with CS2 case odds. And although you won’t get a guaranteed expensive CS2 skin even when you understand the odds, it can help you select which weapon cases you should open if you want to get your money back.
Want to learn how to open only the best CS2 (CS:GO) cases? Here is our guide on everything you need to know about CS2 (CS:GO) case odds.
Understanding CS2 Case Odds in Counter-Strike
In short, the case odds dictate how often you can get a skin of each particular rarity when opening CS2 cases. While you can get all of the unique skins from every case by being lucky, you naturally have a more common chance to land any of the skins in the more common mil-spec rarity, while covert skins are much harder to open in any weapon case. The most desirable skins are most commonly in the covert rarity, while the cheap CS2 skins are generally mil-spec rarity and below.
How Case Odds Work in CS2
For the longest time Counter Strike players were kept in the dark regarding in-game cases and the odds of opening all the skins. Valve has refused to release official numbers, citing that more detail regarding the functioning of the skin system will allow certain gamers and entities to exploit it to get the specific skin they desire. This doesn’t mean, of course, that the Counter Strike community has decided to just let it slide. On the contrary, gamers have tried to find out the cases odds and probabilities from watching gamers open weapon cases on streams and compiling the data.
And while this isn’t the most reliable way to calculate your CS2 cases odds, the release of CS:GO in China has led to a small revolution in this department. In accordance with the China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, every game that features lootboxes (such as CS2 cases) has to publically publish the data on odds of opening cases in their game. Considering that Asia is Valve’s biggest market, they had to publish the CS2 cases odds publically for anyone to see.
What Are The Odds Of Opening Cases in CS2
Thanks to this one change, we can now clearly see what are the odds of opening each CS2 skin rarity. The data published by Valve presents us with the following odds:
- Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79.92%, 4 in 5 weapon cases
- Restricted (Purple) – 15.98%, 1 in 6 weapon cases
- Classified (Pink) – 3.2%, 1 in 31 weapon cases
- Covert (Red) – 0.64%, 1 in 156 weapon cases
- Rare Special (Gold) – 0.26%, 1 in 385 weapon cases
Now, one important thing to keep in mind, is that these are only estimated odds. This means that if you have a 1 in 156 chance of scoring a covert skin when opening the best CS2 cases, it doesn’t mean that you will be guaranteed to obtain one of the red CS2 (CS:GO) skins in that particular case. There’s a chance to open it immediately, or, if you’re unlucky, you might need far more than 156 cases to open that skin.
Navigating the Odds in CS:GO Weapon Cases
The CS2 case odds are generally dictated based on the average luck of a player and how many case openings they need to get particular skins. Sadly, it’s not exactly possible to calculate how many case keys you need to purchase to open your desired skin. However, by researching the odds you can more or less calculate what are your chances of opening the particular skin after you have already opened a number of weapon cases.
In addition, if you want to get the most money out of your weapon cases, however, some cases are much more likely to return your purchase of the case key from the in-game store. The best CS2 cases include:
- CS:GO Weapon Case
- Revolution case
- Dreams & Nightmares case
- Recoil case
- Snakebite case
If you want to find out about more awesome CS2 cases, be sure to check out our guide on the best CS2 (CS:GO) cases in the game!
In Conclusion
Keep an eye on the active drop pool, understand the odds, and you might just land yourself a high-grade, unique skin. Whether it’s a Fracture Case, an Operation Wildfire Case, or a CS2 case, the odds could always tilt in your favor – as the world of Counter-Strike continually offers thrilling gaming experiences.
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